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When you can have your card at 2★ and 3★
By Khaan · Updated Sep 24, 2026
Can your card reach 3★ before the Boss? It depends on its cost. Below, the chance of already owning the copies, round by round.
official2 identical copies = 2★; two 2★ = 3★. So 2★ needs 2 copies and 3★ needs 4.
Method: 20,000 simulated shop phases, official odds per cost (1,000+ trophy bracket), 10/10/10/12/12/12/15 Suncoins per round and up to half of each round's Suncoins spent on the card. Works for any deck (every deck has 3 cards of each cost).
Cost 3 card
| Round | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 copy | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 2★ (2 copies) | 0% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3★ (4 copies) | 0% | 0% | 80% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Cost 5 card
| Round | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 copy | 28% | 87% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 2★ (2 copies) | 0% | 33% | 86% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3★ (4 copies) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 48% | 89% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Cost 8 card
| Round | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 copy | 0% | 5% | 14% | 26% | 39% | 53% | 65% | 76% | 84% | 89% |
| 2★ (2 copies) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 9% | 17% | 28% | 41% | 54% | 66% |
| 3★ (4 copies) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 19% |
What it means
- Cost 3: 3★ by R4 in 99% of matches. It's the cost for merging early.
- Cost 5: 2★ by R3 in 86%, and 3★ only around R5 (89%). It almost always reaches 3★ before the 2nd Boss (R6).
- Cost 8: having 1 copy by R6 happens in 53% of matches; 2★ passes half only on R7 (28%); 3★ is rare (19% on R10). Plan your deck counting on cost 8 at 1★ or 2★.
What about having any Minion at 3★?
wikiChance of already having at least one Minion at 3★ on the board (buying and merging whatever shows up):
| Round | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any 3★ | 0% | 7% | 28% | 59% | 86% | 98% |
wikiSo cards that gain something "when a Minion reaches 3★" only pay off from mid game on.
- Suncoins per ★: Suncoin economy guide
- Odds of each cost in the shop: How the shop works
Sources
- Shop cost odds and Suncoins per round: game tables, v2.0.1021
- Merge rule: in-game wiki
- Plants on Fire Wiki shop-phase simulation (20,000 matches per row)